Improving early warning of drought in Australia

This invited review outlines a selection of recent technical and communication advances, in certain areas of climate and weather science that could improve the capability and utility of drought early warning systems in Australia. First, a selection of current operational outputs and their significance for drought early warning is reviewed, then a selection of advancements in the Research and Development (R&D) pipeline are considered, which have potential to help enable better decision-making by stakeholders subject to drought risk. The next generation of drought early warning systems should have a focus on index-and impact-based prediction models that go beyond basic weather and climate parameters, at seasonal through to multi-year timescales. Convergence and integration of emerging research, science and technology is called for across the fields of cli-mate, agronomy, environment, economics and social science, to improve early warning information. The enablement of more predictively based drought policy, should facilitate more proactive re-sponses by stakeholders throughout the agricultural value chain, and should make stakeholders more drought resilient

Enhancing livelihoods in farming communities through super-resolution agromet advisories using advanced digital agriculture technologies

Agricultural production in India is highly vulnerable to climate change. Transformational change to farming systems is required to cope with this changing climate to maintain food security, and ensure farming to remain economically viable. The south Asian rice-fallow systems occupying 22.3 million ha with about 88% in India, mostly (82%) concentrated in the eastern states, are under threat. These systems currently provide economic and food security for about 11 million people, but only achieve 50% of their yield potential. Improvement in productivity is possible through efficient utilization of these fallow lands. The relatively low production occurs because of sub-optimal water and nutrient management strategies. Historically, the Agro-met advisory service has assisted farmers and disseminated information at a district-level for all the states. In some instances, Agro-met delivers advice at the block level also, but in general, farmers use to follow the district level advice and develop an appropriate management plan like land preparation, sowing, irrigation timing, harvesting etc. The advisories are generated through the District Agrometeorology Unit (DAMU) and Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) network, that consider medium-range weather forecast. Unfortunately, these forecasts advisories are general and broad in nature for a given district and do not scale down to the individual field or farm. Farmers must make complex crop management decisions with limited or generalised information. The lack of fine scale information creates uncertainty for farmers, who then develop risk-averse management strategies that reduce productivity. It is unrealistic to expect the Agro-met advisory service to deliver bespoke information to every farmer and to every field simply with the help of Kilometre-scale weather forecast. New technologies must be embraced to address the emerging crises in food security and economic prosperity. Despite these problems, Agro-met has been successful. New digital technologies have emerged though, and these digital technologies should become part of the Agro-met arsenal to deliver valuable information directly to the farmers at the field scale. The Agro-met service is poised to embrace and deliver new interventions through technology cross-sections such as satellite remote sensing, drone-based survey, mobile based data collection systems, IoT based sensors, using insights derived from a hybridisation of crop and AIML (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) models. These technological advancements will generate fine-scale static and dynamic Agro-met information on cultivated lands, that can be delivered through Application Programming Interface (APIs) and farmers facing applications. We believe investment in this technology, that delivers information directly to the farmers, can reverse the yield gap, and address the negative impacts of a changing climate

Alleviation of drought and salt stress in vegetables : crop responses and mitigation strategies

In recent decades, the demand for vegetables has increased signifcantly due to the blooming global population. Climate change has afected vegetable production by increasing the frequencies and severity of abiotic and biotic stresses. Among the abiotic stresses, drought and salinity are the major issues that possess severe threats on vegetable production. Many vegetables (e.g., carrot, tomato, okra, pea, eggplant, lettuce, potato) are usually sensitive to drought and salt stress. The defence mechanisms of plants against salt and drought stress have been extensively studied in model plant species and feld crops. Better understanding of the mechanisms of susceptibility of vegetables to drought and salt stresses will help towards the development of more tolerant genotypes as a long-term strategy against these stresses. However, the intensity of the challenges also warrants more immediate approaches to mitigate these stresses and enhance vegetable production in the short term. Therefore, this review enlightens the updated knowledge of responses (physiological and molecular) against drought and salinity in vegetables and potentially efective strategies to enhance production. Moreover, we summarized diferent technologies such as seed priming, genetic transformation, biostimulants, nanotechnology, and cultural practices adopted to enhance vegetable production under drought and salinity stress. We propose that approaches of conventional breeding, genetic engineering, and crop management should be combined to generate drought and salt resistance cultivars and adopt smart cultivation practices for sustainable vegetable production in a changing climate

Proto Kranz-like leaf traits and cellular ionic regulation are associated with salinity tolerance in a halophytic wild rice

Species of wild rice (Oryza spp.) possess a wide range of stress tolerance traits that can be potentially utilized in breeding climate-resilient cultivated rice cultivars (Oryza sativa) thereby aiding global food security. In this study, we conducted a greenhouse trial to evaluate the salinity tolerance of six wild rice species, one cultivated rice cultivar (IR64) and one landrace (Pokkali) using a range of electrophysiological, imaging, and whole-plant physiological techniques. Three wild species (O. latifolia, O. officinalis and O. coarctata) were found to possess superior salinity stress tolerance. The underlying mechanisms, however, were strikingly different. Na+ accumulation in leaves of O. latifolia, O. officinalis and O. coarctata were significantly higher than the tolerant landrace, Pokkali. Na+ accumulation in mesophyll cells was only observed in O. coarctata, suggesting that O. officinalis and O. latifolia avoid Na+ accumulation in mesophyll by allocating Na+ to other parts of the leaf. The finding also suggests that O. coarctata might be able to employ Na+ as osmolyte without affecting its growth. Further study of Na+ allocation in leaves will be helpful to understand the mechanisms of Na+ accumulation in these species. In addition, O. coarctata showed Proto Kranz-like leaf anatomy (enlarged bundle sheath cells and lower numbers of mesophyll cells), and higher expression of C4-related genes (e.g., NADPME, PPDK) and was a clear outlier with respect to salinity tolerance among the studied wild and cultivated Oryza species. The unique phylogenetic relationship of O. coarctata with C4 grasses suggests the potential of this species for breeding rice with high photosynthetic rate under salinity stress in the future

Integrated crop and environmental management for improved productivity and food security

Improved productivity requires informed decisions on a number of issues including crop, water, soil and financial risk management. In this paper, we use some case-study examples to illustrate how crop simulation models can be used to analyze the threats and opportunities arising from climate variability, climate change, and market variation for a focus crop at selected locations. We then demonstrate how this analysis can be coupled with site-specific soil information to inform soil and crop management strategies so that crop yield potential can be realised. Two sites in eastern Australia, Dalby (27 degrees S) and Corowa (36 degrees S) were used as a case study to analyse wheat growing conditions at two contrasting locations. Average annual rainfall ranged from 540 mm in Corowa to 675 mm in Dalby, with rainfall summer dominant in the north and winter (growing season) dominant in the south. Simulated crop growth parameters were assessed using APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) and the data set was split into two time periods (1957-1983 and 1984-2011) to allow comparison. Dalby in the north showed a shift to decreasing simulated grain yield in the later period. For example the median grain yield at Dalby was reduced from 4000 kg/ha to a little over 3000 kg/ha. The decreased yield probabilities were accompanied by increased water stress during critical growth stages at Dalby. APSIM simulations highlight the climate change/ variability at Dalby with current 80 percentile yield of about 4000 kg/ha whereas at Corowa, there is no evidence of climate change/ variability and the 80 percentile yield is about 6000 kg/ha. The soil at the Dalby location is a Vertisol, while that at Corowa is a Solonetz. We used the paper-based DSS (Decision-Support Systems) called SCAMP (Soil Constraints and Management Package). Management strategies for ameliorating production constraints are identified, including the use of amendments such as gypsum and soil analyses to give fertiliser recommendations. Fertiliser management (fertilizer rate, timing and placement) can then be optimised using the CD-based DSS SafeGauge for Nutrients to maximise nutrient use efficiency and to minimise the environmental risk associated with off-site nutrient movement. Climate variability and economic return considerations indicate Corowa is the better choice for long term food security and economic returns than Dalby. SCAMP and SafeGauge for Nutrients indicate that different soil management practices would be needed at the two sites to realise yield potential. This case study thus demonstrates the principles of our new research project, funded by the Qatar National Research Fund (QNRF) through its National Research Priority Program, in that the climate of a site of interest is analysed using a crop growth model to firstly indicate if the crop can grow there, what would be the likely yield, and what would be the likely effects of climate change on yield potential. Economics then dictate if the yield is high enough and stable enough to warrant development. SCAMP and other relevant models are then used to identify soil constraints that will need to be mitigated to maintain productivity

Impact Assessment of Climate Variability and Climate Change on Crop Water Productivity of Wheat at Selected Indian and Australian Locations: A Crop Growth Simulation Approach

There is evidence of climate variability and rapid climate change in recent past, which adversely impacted on agricultural productivity and water resource utilisation throughout the world. Negative impact is more common than positive one. Literature confirmed that both India and Australia faced change in climatic parameters during last century, resulting changes in yield and water productivity of crops including wheat, a major cereal for both the country. The expected condition of climatic parameters and phenomenon are likely to change at a very faster rate under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. According to IPCC 5th assessment report (2014), global mean surface temperature at the end of 21st century is likely to increase by 0.3°C to 4.8°C under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Expected rainfall amount will vary season and location wise. The expected carbon dioxide concentration will increase to the tune of 430 to 860 ppm during the end of this century. Under such situation, this research emphasized to assess the historical and forthcoming (2021-95) change in climatic parameters (temperatures, rainfall, solar radiation) and their influence on yield and water use pattern of wheat in selected locations over India (Jalpaiguri, Malda, Murshidabad, Nadia, Birbhum and South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal state) and Australia (Dalby in Queensland; Junee, Trangie in New South Wales; Esperance, Jerramungup in Western Australia)

Assessment of climate variability and trend on wheat productivity in West Bengal, India : crop growth simulation approach

Wheat is the second important cereal crop after rice in West Bengal. During last three decades, due to climate fluctuations and variability, the productivity of this crop remains almost constant, bringing the threat of food security of this State. The objectives of the present study were to assess the trend of climatic variables (rainfall, rainy days, and temperature) over six locations covering five major agro-climatic sub-zones of West Bengal and to estimate the variability of potential, simulated yield using crop simulation model (DSAATv4.5) and the yield gap with actual yield. There were no significant change of rainfall and rainy days in annual, seasonal and monthly scale at all the study sites. In general, the maximum temperature is decreasing throughout West Bengal. Except for Birbhum, the minimum temperature increased significantly in different study sites. District average yield of wheat varied from 1757 kg ha−1 at Jalpaiguri to 2421 kg ha−1at Birbhum. The actual yield trend ranged from − 4.7 kg ha−1 year−1 at Nadia to 32.8 kg ha−1 year−1 at Birbhum. Decreasing trend of potential yield was observed in Terai (Jalpaiguri), New Alluvial Zone (Nadia) and Coastal saline zone (South 24 Parganas), which is alarming for food security in West Bengal

Impact of climate change on future productivity and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern India

High temperature and elevated CO2 under future climate change will influence the agricultural productivity worldwide. Burgeoning population along with climate change situation is going to threaten the food security of India. According to IPCC 5th Assessment Report, global mean surface temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the end of twenty-first century will increase by 4.8 °C and 539 ppm respectively under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Considering the burning issue, the present study aims to find out the probable change in different climatic parameters under high greenhouse gas emission (RCP 8.5) scenario during 2021–2095 and their impact on wheat yield and water productivity over six locations (Jalpaiguri, Nadia, Murshidabad, Malda, Birbhum, and South 24 Parganas) covering five major agro-climatic zones of West Bengal, a state of eastern India. Results showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase by 5.3 °C and 5.9 °C during the end of this century. The increase in annual rainfall will be maximum (22%) at Murshidabad. Wheat yield will increase by 3 to 28% across the study sites. The seasonal crop evapotranspiration value will decline by 1 to 21%. Both water use efficiency (WUE) and transpiration use efficiency (TUE) will increase at all the study sites

Adaptation strategies in coping with climate change impacts for improved crop health and sustainable food production

In this chapter, historical climate information on rainfall, evaporation and temperature is compared with projections of these variables using outputs from the CSIRO Mk3 GCM for the A1B SRES scenario and stochastic downscaling models for two selected locations in Australia. The differences between current climatic parameters and those for 2030 and 2070 provide information on the changes in dependability of crop growing seasons. These analyses could also be used in identifying suitable strategies for adaptation to the projected climate change, and for evaluating alternate management options relating to excess and insufficient water during the growing season. These findings also have implications in resource management for mitigation purposes (e.g. the role of crop models in screening environments for growing of carbon sinks). The issue of the response of pests and diseases, and their interaction with host crops, to climate change is also considered. Information is required on the seasonal and geographic distributions of the occurrence and severity of pests and diseases for future climatic situations. We also report on current research aiming to integrate pathogen, crop and weather information for making tactical crop management decisions. Even though the study uses Australian data as a case study to test and validate the methodologies presented, it provides a generic framework and research directions which can easily be applied to other parts of the world including South Asia. Implications of research findings to South Asia and future research directions are also discussed

Food security and climate change : evaluating mismatch between crop development and water availability

Plant breeding and crop selection involves optimiz¬ing yield for different agro-ecological zones. Soil and climatic parameters are the major matching factors, with temperature, photoperiod and water availability being major climatic factors influencing crop adaption and productivity. Under climate change scenarios, it is proposed that average temperatures will increase while there will be changes in both the amount and distribu¬tion of rainfall. Because of these changes, it is probable that mismatches will arise between crop phenology (the growth stages of the crop) and environmental factors, resulting in yield decreases. This will occur through, for example, water or temperature stresses at critical periods of crop yield determination (Huda et al., 2011; Mei, 2005; Sadras and Monzon, 2006; Goswami et al., 2006 and Wani et al., 2008). A project has been developed with APN ARCP funding to examine mismatches between crop phenol¬ogy and climate (particularly water availability) arising from recently realized climate trends and proposed climate change. Research collaborators are UWS and South Australian Research and Development Institute SARDI), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), and Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). The project commenced in September 2010 and major coordination activities have been workshops in China, India and Australia to plan and achieve the desired project research outcomes. Possible mismatches arising from realized warming were the subject of the project planning workshop, held in Beijing in September 2010. The workshop designed case studies in China, India and Australia, and realized a significant input to the project that would be made by young researchers in China and India. Strategies have been developed to enhance capacity building of these researchers during the project, including their involve-ment in the final project workshop in Australia